Speculator Ed's Blog

Monday, November 23, 2009

Loving finviz.com

Hmmm... I really like finviz.com, very streamlined. One day I'll subscribe to it for real-time data, but not until i become wildly successful first.

Just a quick speculating note, I think S&P will reach 1121 then reverse.

COT 11/11 to 11/17

S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE                    Code-138741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 11/17/09                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
      NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
  LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00)                            OPEN INTEREST:      398,633
COMMITMENTS
  29,945   35,935      787  248,563  309,181  279,295  345,903  119,338   52,730

CHANGES FROM 11/09/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:      9,304)
   4,119   -1,649        0    3,909    2,529    8,028      880    1,276    8,424

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
     7.5      9.0      0.2     62.4     77.6     70.1     86.8     29.9     13.2

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:      136)
      20       20        4       65       53       87       75
 
 
E-MINI S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE             Code-13874A
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 11/17/09                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
      NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
  LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
($50 X S&P 500 INDEX)                                OPEN INTEREST:    2,606,977
COMMITMENTS
 467,806  299,995   30,560  1890184  1907422  2388550  2237977  218,427  369,000

CHANGES FROM 11/09/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:     46,143)
  -7,556  -42,301    6,287      615   83,850     -654   47,836   46,797   -1,693

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
    17.9     11.5      1.2     72.5     73.2     91.6     85.8      8.4     14.2

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:      443)
     102       92       31      161      163      277      272

SP so different from ES again. For ES, commercials heavy short vs speculators heavy long. Hmmmm... thinkorswim not working right now (maybe maintenence), i'll update with chart later.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Loving thinkorswim platform

This morning I chilled in the thinkorswim shadowtrader chatroom. Besides the guy giving very good real time audio/video commentary about the market, I also love chatting bullshit away.

+$1 NTAP

29 free trades used up, 1 trade left reserved for selling CHS position for the remainder of the month.

Disclaimer

If you can't be statistically profitable with fake money, don't even think about giving your hard earned cash to 5+ years experienced professionals that have better everything than you (knowledge, intelligence, skills, dedication, self control, market analysis, capital, equipment, connections, etc.)

Statistically profitable is a very tricky concept. Let's just say 99.9% of those who use the buffett hold forever strategy is probably not statistically profitable due to too high of risk, too low number of attempts, and small wins causing them to be overconfident. These three parts must be weighted together correctly: risk:reward, win:loss, and #attempts.

Trade Profile

Objective:

I feel like I was born to trade, as many of my past experiences were honed for it. Therefore, I will undertake the path to financial freedom. They say 95% fail, 3% breakeven, and 2% makes it. So my aim is to become the top 1% by being 99% more dedicated, and mentally working 99% harder than 99% of others. Much of the following will constantly update based on what I learn as I'm still a beginner.

Related Qualities:

1. 1st grade introduced me to Sherlock Holmes: "Put yourself into his shoes". I've always figured things out ever since. Let's put on the shoes of price, and see how human behavior and rule-based robots are pushing me.

2. After 1st grade, I went to summer school, and it turns out to be a 2nd grade summer math course, where I got a head start in memorizing the multiplication table.

3. Math and memory made me love cards, and gambling. I developed an innate intuition on probability, and risk/money management.

4. I've spent more than half my life in online competitive gaming. I've always repeated to myself that "if someone else can do it, then I can do it better with enough practice." I was also majorly successful with in-game trading on Diablo II, Magic the Gathering Online, and World of Warcraft. I have since quit gaming due to my new love/obsession in trading.

5. 4 years in college I've practiced 9-ball billiards, some days for 15+ hours. My mentor taught me the extremes to become mechanical, to do everything the same way, breathe the same way, and maintain the same heartrate in order to always shoot the same way. Took with me some lifelong treasures: focus, discipline, and enlightenment.

6. Software engineering strengthened my logics.

7. Internet addiction since its early days have made me good at finding information.

8. Currently Juicing for a natural nutritional supplement. (also benefits the mind)

9. Currently learning Tai Chi Chuan for health and self defense. (also benefits the mind)

Scalp Trading Rules:

1. No rules at the moment, just feeling the market.

Current Strategy:

Paper trading, but trying to simulate real trading scenarios on tools and psychology. Hence, I'm using one of my strongest double-edged sword talent of injecting thoughts into my mind on the importance of winning vs. losing, rather than money involved. Although the focus is to become emotionless, there will always be some fear, so I want that fear to be 100% from fear of losing, while 0% from money loss. I am also culminating a predetermined stop and daily loss cap which I fully acknowledge as risk so that losses are part of the game and hopefully not affect me negatively because I know this is my biggest weakness. Replaying the first two hours whenever I have time will be a key tool for my practice as well.

Practicing discretionary trading during market hours. Backtesting mechanical trading during off hours. Still searching for an edge, once I find it, I will enroll into a 25 day 100% true simulation paper trade of forward testing.

Indicators:

renko charts (premarket, how price traveled, how much volume to move price)

price action (speed, acceleration, pause, momentum, trend)

trend lines of many flavors (trending, range bound, S&R)

swing length, and position (hh hl lh ll eh el)

candle color, length, and position (hh hl lh ll eh el)

fibonacci retracements

level 2 histogram chart (depth of market)

looking out for big boys gunning for stops

Broker:

thinking Mirus Futures when I go live

maybe AMP Futures or Dorman

Criteria: good trading off charts platform, fast reliable unfiltered data feed, fast execution, low commissions, and customer support, preferably have iphone support like dorman.

Chart/Data Feed/Order Management:

NinjaTrader + ZenFire for unfiltered data to have accurate volume charts

Discretionary: Trade directly off charts with limit and stop order lines with automatic stop, and target lines

Mechanical: Test manually, if work then write algorithm

Market:

Futures due to USA 60/40 tax advantage, no pattern day trading rule, and no wash sale rule. Not regulated by lame SEC that thought up all of the stupid equity rules. Easy to deal with tax filing. Also, leverage is good for scalping since I only have time to trade for about 1 to 2 hours each morning when markets open before I take off to work. Market opens on 6:30 am Los Angeles time.

I started with playing mini-DOW YM:

1. The spread is typically $5, $10, or $15, while ES is $12.5 or $25, which seems more forgiving when the tick goes against you.

2. I've been following the DOW for awhile, which I feel is more exciting to talk about, as DOW is what everyone talks about.

3. It's easier to keep track of the 30 companies.

Now I play with mini-S&P ES because it aligns better with other traders, aligns better with my 401K trading of SH, and the real stock market activity is really S&P.

Should liquidity, or rules of the game change substantially, I will consider Forex (USD/EUR), or other commodities.

401K Trading:

Self-directed account is very restricted, where I can only use JPMorgan Chase which cost $15 per side. Also, I can only buy equities, so inverse ETFs (SH, or FAZ) are the only way I can profit from the bear market swings. For the bull market swings, I plan to play some of the safe bets like SPY, GE, and APPL, while some dangerous ones like C, BAC, and FAS.

Roth IRA trading:

401K commissions too costly, so i opened a Roth IRA with BofA to leverage 30 free trades per month. I intend to chase stocks that are shooting up with this account.

Books:

Favorites: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Art of War, New Market Wizards

Planning to read: Fooled by Randomness, Way of the Turtle, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Think and Grow Rich

Workstation:

Current: Using a netbook, Asus EeePC 1000H, which I keep ON all the time, where I leave on my bed. Besides sleeping with it, I give it my first attention once I wake up.

Quotes

He who quits and runs away lives to quit again another day.

The trend is your friend until it comes to an end.

All warfare is based on deception.

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.

If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.

If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

Plan your trade and trade your plan because fail to plan is planning to fail.

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.

If the enemy do not move, then I do not move. When the enemy is about to move, then I move first.

Follow the money and you will find the truth.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Loving finviz.com

COT 11/11 to 11/17

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Loving thinkorswim platform

+$1 NTAP

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

bought CHS, ouch

Speculator Ed's Blog

My Indicators

My Blog List

Links I Frequent

Recent Comments

Blog Archive

Labels

Followers

About Me

Disclaimer

Trade Profile

Quotes